BETTING GUIDE: Mali vs Madagascar, Match Preview, Team News and Betting Tips
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Reading Time: 4min | Sat. 11.10.25. | 22:06
While the Eagles are mathematically eliminated from contention, the visiting Barea still harbour hopes of reaching the playoffs through a runners-up spot
With nothing left to play for but national pride, Mali will host a motivated Madagascar side at the Stade du 26 Mars in Bamako on Sunday evening, as the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers enter the final round.
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While the Eagles are mathematically eliminated from contention, the visiting Barea still harbour hopes of reaching the playoffs through a runners-up spot.
Despite their 2-0 win over Chad in midweek, Mali were officially ruled out of qualification after Madagascar’s 2-1 victory against Comoros on the same day.
That result widened the gap to four points between the two teams, meaning Mali cannot catch up even with a win.
The reverse fixture between these sides ended in a cagey 0-0 draw, but this game promises more intensity with Madagascar riding on a three-match winning streak.
With direct qualification nearly impossible - trailing Ghana by three points and an eight-goal difference - Corentin Martins’ side will likely shift their focus to securing one of the top four runners-up spots to reach the next qualification round.
A key twist in the playoff equation came from CAF’s decision to discount results against bottom-placed teams due to Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E.
Even after removing their two wins over Chad, Madagascar are currently inside the top four of the runners-up bracket - but a positive result in Bamako remains crucial.
From Mali’s perspective, this campaign has been underwhelming.
After flashes of promise, they have faltered at key moments, particularly on home turf - drawing 1-1 against CAR and losing 2-1 to Ghana were especially costly.
However, the Eagles remain formidable at home, unbeaten in their last four matches in Bamako with three clean sheets.
Their defensive strength is reflected in their group-best record of just five goals conceded across nine matches.
Coach Tom Saintfiet is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation used in the win over Chad.
With no suspensions or injuries, the same starting eleven is expected - though some rotation may be introduced to test fringe players.
Key to Mali’s attacking spark is Kamory Doumbia, who has scored eight goals in the campaign, including a brace on Wednesday.
Doumbia has scored in every game that Mali have found the back of the net, underlining his importance.
Expect a compact shape with structured pressing in midfield, trying to limit space for Madagascar's creators.
Mali will likely lean on set-pieces and individual brilliance in transitions, especially through Doumbia and Lassine Sinayoko, who might start after featuring from the bench.
On the other hand, Madagascar are one of Africa’s most improved teams, looking to make history with a potential playoff qualification.
They have peaked at the right time, winning their last three matches - 2-0 vs CAR, 3-1 vs Chad, and 2-1 away to Comoros - and scoring multiple goals in each.
However, suspensions could be a major headache. Key right-back Radoniaina Rabemanantsoa, centre-back Ehsan Kari, and forward Warren Caddy are all unavailable due to accumulated bookings.
This will force coach Martins into key defensive reshuffles - a risky prospect against Mali’s in-form attack.
Despite this, Madagascar's midfield remains intact. Clement Couturier and El Hadary Raheriniaina are expected to retain their places after scoring midweek, while Rayan Raveloson, with five goals in qualifying, will dictate the tempo in midfield.
Martins is likely to deploy a 4-3-3, aiming for proactive pressing and quick vertical play.
Madagascar will look to exploit Mali’s transitional vulnerabilities - but the defensive gaps from suspensions could be their undoing.
In fact, across Mali’s last 13 matches, at least one team failed to score.
Similarly, Madagascar have conceded fewer than one goal per game on average in this campaign.
While Mali have never qualified for a World Cup, they have often flirted with the final stages. For Madagascar, even a playoff spot would represent a historic achievement.
Key Pointers
Mali’s last 13 matches have seen at least one team fail to score goals
In their last six World Cup qualifiers in this campaign, Mali have seen one or both teams fail to score goals
Mali have kept a clean sheet in their last four home matches in all competitions
Madagascar have conceded an average of fewer than one goal in this qualification campaign
The reverse fixture ended in a 0-0 draw.
Despite being eliminated, Mali still possess enough quality - particularly at home - to frustrate their playoff-hopeful visitors.
Their strong defensive home record, combined with Madagascar’s recent form, levels the playing field significantly.
While Barea will push harder, desperation could lead to errors, especially against a team that thrives on discipline and counterattacks.
Madagascar's attacking form suggests they might find a goal, but Mali’s pride and home advantage should see them stand firm.
A close and tense affair is on the cards, likely with few goals. With both teams boasting solid defences, a draw seems the most probable outcome.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
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