A derby of underachievers

The most challenging season in Pep Guardiola’s almost 10 year reign at the Etihad stadium was 2024/25, when he finished third and had no less than nine defeats (in league alone). A massive rebuild followed in the June transfer window and many new faces arrived for a total of 177.3 million pounds (in initial fees only): Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Rayan Cherki, Gianluigi Donnarumma, James Trafford, Sverre Nypan and Marcus Bettinelli, along with heavily paid January signings Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis, Omar Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez. The result? Two defeats in the first three rounds of the new season and one of them (Tottenham) at home. A third defeat and this time from the hated rival Manchester United would be a disaster.

Three points from a possible nine represents Pep Guardiola's worst start to any league season, while 21 years have passed since Manchester City were last beaten in two of their opening three Premier League matches. But Guardiola was cool and brave in front of the press.

“In the last eight or nine years, we’ve been champions six times. Since I came here, we’ve always been better than them. Nine, ten years… always with a big points difference. Of course, they can beat us. We don’t want that to happen on Sunday. We need the points. We have to get into rhythm, those points are essential for us to recover after two defeats and to reach our ultimate goal—to win the trophy” said the Spaniard.

A disaster: United lost 800 million on players in post-Fergie era

But there is another problem here – Guardiola is yet to defeat Ruben Amorim. The United coach who led the Red Devils during their worst season in recent history and is not playing well at the start of this year either, has won against the Citizens 2-1 at Etihad and drew (0-0) at Old Trafford! The Blues have had by far the better of this rivalry in recent times, losing just three of the last 14 meetings between the sides, but the two last derbies are being looked at more than the ones which happened three years ago.

Betting Tips: Manchester Derby :Tactical Analysis, Team News, Stats and betting guide

Amorim also decided to ‘clean up’ his team and United spent 200 million pounds on the attacking trio Mbeumo – Cunha – Sesko, while Garnacho, Hojlund, Sancho, Onana and Rashford are all gone. The result? One win from a dodgy penalty in injury time, one draw, a defeat and embarrassing Carabao Cup exit from Grimzby. But Ruben Amorim believes that his team is better than last season and decided to give the Turkish keeper Altay Bayindir the nod over the deadline signing Senne Lammens.

“I think we are a better team than last season vs City. I think if you see any, any aspect, if you see the data, we are a different team. We are ready to play the game, but we have to show on Sunday, so I think we are a better team today. Altay Bayindir is going to continue because we need to. This game is clear. Altay will start. It's a show of faith in Altay. I know that we are in a moment where the goalkeeper needs to be really strong and have a lot of experience, but we are all also in a moment where we have to look at the present, but also with a focus on the future” said Amorim. Both teams are dealing with squad issues. Guardiola cannot count on Rayan Cherki, Mateo Kovačić, Omar Marmoush, and Savinho. United are without Cunha, Dalot, Mount, and Martínez.

PREMIER LEAGUE - MATCHDAY 4

Saturday

Arsenal - Nottingham Forest 3-0 (1-0)

/Zubimendi 32, 79, Gyokeres 46/

Bournemouth - Brighton 2-1 (1-0)

/Scott 18, Semenyo 61 pen - Mitoma 48/

Crystal Palace - Sunderland 0-0

Everton - Aston Villa 0-0

Fulham - Leeds 1-0 (0-0)

/Gudmundsson 94 (og)/

Newcastle - Wolverhampton 1-0 (1-0)

/Woltemade 29/

West Ham - Tottenham 0-3 (0-0)

/Sarr 47, Bergvall 57, Van de Ven 64/

Brentford - Chelsea 2-2 (1-0)

/Schade 35, Carvalho 90+3 - Palmer 61, Caicedo 85/

Sunday

16.00: (10.0) Burnley (5.50) Liverpool (1.35)

18.30: (1.75) Manchester City (4.20) Manchester United (4.60)

***odds are subject to change***