F1: Penultimate round – Lando Norris’ first match point in the desert

The 2025 campaign is crawling toward its finale, and after McLaren’s shock disqualification last weekend, the championship storyline has more twists than ever. Formula 1 has rarely felt this alive.

Lando Norris stands on the brink of glory. He could wrap up the title in Qatar, or the fight could spill into the desert night of Abu Dhabi a week later. His cushion sits at 24 points, with Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen locked together right behind him.

The weekend ahead promises its own intensity. Racing in the Arabian Desert guarantees punishing heat and lingering humidity — Qatar is, in many ways, a Middle Eastern echo of Singapore’s sauna-like conditions. Forecasts suggest temperatures starting at 29°C on Friday and dropping slightly to 27°C by Sunday, with humidity hovering around 48%.

With 58 points left on the table over the final two rounds — 33 of which come from Qatar’s sprint format — the math is simple for Norris. A margin of 26 points or more by Sunday night crowns him champion. In practice, that means he needs to outscore both Piastri and Verstappen by at least two points across the sprint and main event.

The numbers behind the title chase paint an equally tight picture:

Norris (390 pts) — 17 podiums, 7 wins

Piastri (366 pts) — 14 podiums, 7 wins

Verstappen (366 pts) — 13 podiums, 6 wins

Lusail International Circuit, once a habitat for MotoGP before signing a 10-year F1 deal in 2021, remains one of the toughest venues on the calendar. After sitting out 2022 due to World Cup preparations, Qatar returned in 2023 and 2024, and its combination of long straights, relentless high-speed corners, and oppressive conditions continues to test both man and machine.

Last year delivered chaos: three safety cars, soaring temperatures, and a messy affair that ultimately handed Max Verstappen the win. Lando Norris — running second — saw his race crumble with a 10-second stop-go penalty. Charles Leclerc swept into P2, Oscar Piastri inherited third, and Norris limped home in 10th.

At first glance, Qatar looks tailor-made for McLaren. Its silky, high-grip asphalt and those long, flowing corners at medium and high speed practically highlight everything the MCL39 does well.

But if 2025 has delivered one clear lesson, it’s that expectations can crumble the moment the lights go out. And with Max Verstappen refusing to loosen his grip on the title chase, the momentum feels like it could swing his way. Don’t be surprised if the reigning champion storms to victory in Qatar and drags the battle all the way to the Abu Dhabi finale.

FORMULA 1 - TOP 10 DRIVERS

1. Norris - 390 pts

2. Piastri - 366 pts

3. Verstappen - 366 pts

4. Russell - 294 pts

5. Leclerc - 226 pts

6. Hamilton - 152 pts

7. Antonelli - 137 pts

8. Albon - 73 pts

9. Hadjar - 51 pts

10. Hulkenberg - 49 pts