BETTING GUIDE: Ukraine vs Iceland, match preview, team news and prediction
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Reading Time: 4min | Sun. 16.11.25. | 18:55
Ukraine, currently chasing redemption after a damaging defeat, must rise to the moment, while Iceland arrive knowing that even a draw will be enough to send them into the play-offs
Only a win will keep Ukraine’s 2026 FIFA World Cup ambitions alive, as they prepare for a decisive final Group D encounter against Iceland in Warsaw.
With France already secured as runaway group leaders, the battle for second place - and the highly sought-after play-off spot - comes down to these last 90 minutes.
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Ukraine, currently chasing redemption after a damaging defeat, must rise to the moment, while Iceland arrive knowing that even a draw will be enough to send them into the play-offs.
The stakes could not be higher.
Ukraine enter this clash under pressure after suffering a demoralising 4-0 loss to France, a result that confirmed their inability to qualify automatically.
Serhiy Rebrov’s side must immediately refocus, because failure to win here will condemn them to another heartbreaking elimination - something Ukrainian fans have endured far too often.
Historically, Ukraine have reached the play-off stage in five of their last seven World Cup qualification cycles, only to fall short at the final hurdle.
Before they can attempt to break this cycle, they must qualify for the play-offs first, and to do so, three points are non-negotiable.
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There will, however, be confidence within the Ukrainian camp.
Against teams ranked below them, Ukraine have been reliable throughout this campaign, remaining unbeaten in matches against Azerbaijan and Iceland (W2, D1).
Their reverse fixture against Iceland ended in a thrilling 5-3 victory, demonstrating their attacking firepower when given space to operate.
This match presents an opportunity to correct the mistakes made against France and respond with composure and conviction.
Iceland, meanwhile, arrive with slightly more breathing room.
Their important 2-0 victory away to Azerbaijan on Thursday has placed them on the brink of the play-offs.
A point here seals their progression and keeps alive the dream of returning to the World Cup stage for the first time since their historic 2018 appearance.
Yet Iceland are far from consistent.
They have lost six of their last ten internationals (W3, D1) and know from experience that complacency can be costly.
It was Ukraine who ended Iceland’s Euro 2024 hopes - also on Polish soil - an emotional scar that undoubtedly adds psychological weight to this fixture.
Despite their advantage in the standings, Iceland cannot afford to underestimate their opponents
Ukraine hold a strong advantage in this matchup, having lost just one of the six previous meetings (W3, D2).
Their recent 5-3 triumph highlights the attacking quality they possess and the defensive vulnerabilities Iceland often display.
Iceland will need to show greater discipline and organisation to avoid a repeat of that chaotic encounter.
For Ukraine, Oleksiy Gutsulyak remains a crucial figure after scoring and assisting against Azerbaijan last month.
Impressively, Ukraine have won every match in which Gutsulyak has scored, including the reverse fixture of this matchup.
His timing of runs and clinical edge make him an essential part of Ukraine’s attacking blueprint.
Defensively, Ukraine struggled in Paris and notably missed the presence of striker Artem Dovbyk, who remains sidelined with a hip injury.
His absence limits their ability to hold up play and threaten centrally.
Additionally, midfielder Arseniy Batahov is unavailable due to a muscular issue.
Rebrov may opt for changes to reset the rhythm, although the defensive pairing and players like Ilya Zabarnyi and Yehor Yarmoliuk are expected to keep their places.
Iceland, meanwhile, were buoyed by a strong defensive display in Azerbaijan, with Daniel Gretarsson and Sverrir Ingi Ingason forming an effective centre-back partnership.
Ingason’s goal was his first international strike in nine years, and his teams have remained unbeaten in his last 20 goal-scoring appearances (W13, D7) - a quirky but encouraging omen.
The visitors continue to deploy Hakon Arnar Haraldsson in a deep-lying midfield role, giving them stability and ball progression.
There are no fresh injury worries following Thursday’s match.
Ukraine’s approach will be proactive, urgent, and front-footed.
They must chase three points, and that should translate into high-tempo attacking patterns, full-back involvement, and aggressive pressing.
Their primary concern will be avoiding defensive errors, particularly on transitions where Iceland have shown an ability to strike quickly.
Iceland, needing only a draw, are expected to sit deeper and absorb pressure, potentially adopting a backs-to-the-wall defensive posture for long stretches.
Their threat will come from counter-attacks, set pieces, and quick wide overloads, areas where Ukraine have had historically inconsistent defensive responses.
Both sides possess vulnerabilities that favour open football - Ukraine’s necessity to attack and Iceland’s reactive, transition-focused strategy practically guarantee chances at both ends.
Key Pointers
- Nine of Ukraine’s last 12 matches and 3 of Iceland’s 5 group games saw both teams score
- Eight of Iceland’s last 10 matches and the 5-3 reverse fixture highlight a strong goal trend
- 11 of Ukraine's last 15 goals have come in the second half
- All five of Iceland’s WCQ games in this cycle had at least one first-half goal
- Both teams to score landed in four of the last six meetings between the two nations
With motivation levels high, defensive fragility on both sides, and statistical trends strongly pointing toward goals, this fixture sets up perfectly for an attacking, end-to-end contest.
The combination of Ukraine’s must-win mindset and Iceland’s counter-attacking efficiency makes BTTS the standout value pick for this decisive World Cup qualifier.
Prediction: Both teams to score
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