BETTING GUIDE: Italy vs Norway, Match Preview, Team News and Prediction
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Reading Time: 4min | Sat. 15.11.25. | 22:00
While Norway’s World Cup qualification party is already underway, Italy’s fate appears destined for the playoff route, making this clash crucial for momentum and confidence rather than group supremacy
Only an extraordinary result - a victory by at least nine goals - would allow Italy to snatch top spot in Group I from Norway when the two sides meet at the San Siro on Sunday evening.
While Norway’s 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification party is already underway, Italy’s fate appears destined for the playoff route, making this clash crucial for momentum and confidence rather than group supremacy.
Italy come into this contest on a strong run, their recent 2–0 win over Moldova extending their winning streak to six matches.
Under Gennaro Gattuso, the Azzurri have looked rejuvenated, with the new coach becoming only the third manager in Italian history to start his tenure with five straight victories.
Their upturn in attacking productivity - 18 goals across those matches - highlights a refreshed, dynamic approach, while three consecutive home clean sheets show a return to defensive discipline.
Despite those improvements, Italy’s path to automatic qualification appears blocked by Norway’s near-perfect campaign.
The Scandinavian side dismantled Estonia 4–1 on Thursday, maintaining their record of winning every qualifier so far - seven wins from seven, scoring a remarkable 33 goals and conceding only four.
With momentum firmly in their favour and qualification all but mathematically sealed, Norway arrive in Milan with nothing to lose and everything to celebrate.
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Ståle Solbakken’s squad has demonstrated ruthless efficiency throughout the campaign, including their statement 3–0 win over Italy in the reverse fixture.
They have been particularly devastating away from home, winning their last four on the road while scoring 4+ goals in three of those outings.
Norway’s 3–0 victory in June ended a 24-year wait for a win against Italy.
Historically, this is a low-scoring fixture - just three of the last nine meetings have produced goals at both ends - but given both teams’ current form trends, another goal-heavy affair is realistic.
The Azzurri have scored three or more goals in four of their last five matches and have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of their previous ten competitive fixtures.
Norway, however, have operated at an even more explosive level, winning nine of their last eleven games by margins of two or more while scoring at least three goals in eight of their last nine outings.
Erling Haaland’s individual haul of 14 qualifying goals further amplifies their firepower.
With both teams carrying formidable offensive momentum, this matchup is poised to be driven by attacking intent rather than defensive caution.
Gattuso’s selection will be influenced by caution.
Midfield anchor Sandro Tonali is expected to be rested, as another yellow card would suspend him for the playoff semi-final - a scenario Italy are desperate to avoid.
Moise Kean and Nicolo Cambiaghi remain sidelined through injury, but Nicolo Barella should return after serving a one-match suspension.
Up front, Gianluca Scamacca’s struggles continue, meaning Mateo Retegui - with five goals and four assists in this qualification cycle - could reclaim the starting striker role. Gianluigi Donnarumma is set to return in goal after missing the Moldova match.
Norway’s attacking threat remains intact despite the absence of captain Martin Ødegaard, who misses out due to a knee problem but will support his teammates from the sidelines.
Haaland is joined by the in-form Alexander Sørloth, who scored twice against Estonia and also netted in the reverse fixture against Italy.
On the wings, Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb offer pace and creativity.
Defensively, Leo Østigård returns to the squad, though Solbakken may stick with Torbjørn Heggem alongside Kristoffer Ajer after recent strong performances.
Gattuso has shaped Italy into a more vertical, aggressive unit.
The Azzurri build with intensity, using wide overloads and dynamic rotations from midfield to create constant waves of pressure.
Their high pressing structure has been effective, but they remain vulnerable in defensive transitions - a weakness Norway can exploit.
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Solbakken, on the other hand, employs a direct, high-tempo attacking style built around early deliveries, quick combinations and aggressive counter-pressing.
Haaland’s movement pinning back defensive lines, combined with Sørloth’s link play, allows Norway to transition from defence to attack with frightening speed.
Their wide players push high, forcing opponents into uncomfortable defensive adjustments.
With neither side needing to sit back - Italy chasing rhythm, Norway chasing milestone records - this match promises an open tactical landscape.
Key Pointers
- 11 of Norway’s last 14 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
- Norway scored 3+ goals in eight of their last nine games
- 12 of Italy’s last 15 fixtures produced 3+ goals
- Italy’s last 8 home games have seen 7 hit over 2.5 goals
- Four of Norway’s last five away games featured 5+ total goals
With both teams free from pressure and playing some of the most attacking football in Europe right now, goals should be expected.
Italy have been consistently hitting high-scoring matches under Gattuso, while Norway’s goal record speaks for itself.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals
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