How to pull Italy out of the mud? Does Gattuso even know?

Until 2018, Italy had missed only the very first World Cup in Uruguay and the 1958 tournament in Sweden, when they were literally robbed in a playoff against Northern Ireland (they lost 2–1 with plenty of “help” from Hungarian referee Zsolt).

The Azzurri haven’t just won four World Cup titles — they’ve also played in two other finals and reached the semifinals twice. More precisely, up to the World Cup in Germany, Italy had participated in 16 tournaments — and reached at least the semifinals in half of them.

The downfall began after the triumph in Germany in 2006. In Italy, there’s now a generation that was born, came of age, and still hasn’t seen the Azzurri even reach the round of 16 of a World Cup — and now a new generation is growing up that might reach adulthood without any memory of Italy even appearing at a World Cup. The Euro 2021 triumph and the 2012 final are hardly enough balm for the increasingly painful wound of Italian football.

In South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014, the Azzurri embarrassed themselves by crashing out in the group stage. But those were not exceptions to the rule — they were signs of worse things to come for Italian football.

In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Italy ended up in the playoffs after finishing behind Spain in their group — predictable enough. But in the next cycle, they allowed Switzerland to send them to the playoffs again, and now Norway seems on course to do the same. These are not top-tier national teams with player pools that can compare to Italy’s. And that brings us to the Azzurri’s second nightmare: the playoffs. Negative experiences against Sweden and North Macedonia have shattered Italian confidence, and now they fear everyone — even the possibility of not reaching the playoffs at all.

Head coach Gattuso hopes his players will be extra motivated against Estonia, depending on the result of the Israel–Norway match, which kicks off earlier at 19:00.For the Azzurri, facing Estonia tonight, Israel on Tuesday, and Moldova in November, it’s not just about winning — they need convincing wins and plenty of goals to have even a slim chance of securing direct qualification to the World Cup with a big victory over Norway in the final round.

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Remember: if teams are level on points, overall goal difference and total goals scored across all matches are the tiebreakers. Norway helped themselves immensely with a water-polo-style 11–1 win over Moldova.

That context explains Gattuso’s decision to go for an ultra-attacking 4-2-4 formation, with Raspadori and Orsolini joining forwards Kean and Retegui up front.The good news for Gattuso is that Moise Kean has broken his scoring drought in Serie A with a goal against Roma, while Orsolini is in excellent form. Another crucial boost: Inter’s core players — Dimarco, Bastoni, and Barella — are flying high again.

One major reason for Italy’s collapse against Norway in June was the mental fatigue and disappointment of Inter’s players after the Champions League final loss. Gattuso still has several key players sidelined through injury — notably Gianluca Scamacca, who has the potential to be a major attacking asset for Italy, as well as Mattia Zaccagni and Matteo Politano, along with Napoli defender Alessio Bongiorno.

WC QUALIFIERS - EUROPE

Saturday

16.00: (1.55) Latvia (3.60) Andorra (7.75)

19.00: (1.37) Hungary (4.80) Armenia (9.00)

19.00: (1.20) Norway (7.25) Israel (12.0)

21.45: (11.0) Bulgaria (6.00) Turkey (1.25)

21.45: (25.0) Estonia (11.0) Italy (1.08)

21.45: (1.15) Portugal (7.75) R.Ireland (19.0)

21.45: (1.75) Serbia (3.60) Albania (5.60)

21.45: (1.12) Spain (10.0) Georgia (16.0)

***odds are subject to change***