BETTING GUIDE: Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars, match preview, team news and betting tip
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Reading Time: 6min | Mon. 24.11.25. | 12:03
Direct clashes between Sofapaka and Ulinzi have long been tight, low-scoring battles, with 34 meetings yielding 10 wins for Sofapaka, 11 for Ulinzi, and 13 draws at an average of 1.97 goals per game
Sofapaka will seek to leverage their home advantage and recent resurgence when they host Ulinzi Stars at Kasarani Annex Stadium on November 24, 2025, in a mid-table FKF Premier League clash that could define both teams' flirtations with the relegation scrap.
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Sitting 12th with 11 points from nine matches (three wins, two draws, four losses), Sofapaka are desperate to build on a mixed run, aiming to climb clear of the danger zone and solidify under coach Ezekiel Akwana.
Ulinzi Stars, in 16th with nine points (two wins, three draws, four losses), arrive on a dismal streak of three defeats in five.
With Sofapaka unbeaten in five of their last six league meetings against Ulinzi, and the Soldiers winless in seven of eight, this fixture tilts toward the hosts - but the Soldiers' resilient away draws could make a difference..
This preview breaks down the form, tactics, key battles, and betting value for a contest low on goals but high on stakes.
Sofapaka's form over the last six league games stands at LWLWDW, a rollercoaster that captures their attacking promise tempered by defensive lapses.
They have netted ten goals in nine outings, with a 71% Over 1.5 goals rate highlighting their openness.
Recent highlights include a clinical 2-0 home win over Posta Rangers and a 3-0 away thrashing of Nairobi United.
However, a 2-0 loss to Bandari and a 1-0 defeat to Police exposed vulnerabilities in build-up under pressure.
At home, Sofapaka have been pragmatic: one win, one draw, and two losses in four games, scoring four while conceding five.
Away, they have been sharper - two wins, one draw, two losses, netting six goals without conceding multiples, boasting the league's highest away scoring average (1.67 per game).
Ulinzi Stars' trajectory is far gloomier: WLDLLL across their last six, with two wins in nine overall (0.67 goals per game) and nine conceded (1.00 per game).
A gritty 1-0 away win over APS Bomet offered brief respite, but home defeats to Shabana (0-1) and Bidco (1-2), plus a 3-1 away loss to Kakamega Homeboyz, have piled the pressure on their performance recently.
Ulinzi have drawn three and lost four, with four clean sheets and four BTTS games.
Home form is woeful: three losses and one draw in four, scoring two and conceding five.
Away, they have been more stubborn - two wins, two draws, one loss in five, netting four while conceding three, including draws at Gor Mahia and Police, where they have frustrated bigger sides with midfield density.
Direct clashes between Sofapaka and Ulinzi have long been tight, low-scoring battles, with 34 meetings yielding 10 wins for Sofapaka, 11 for Ulinzi, and 13 draws at an average of 1.97 goals per game.
The last five encounters show Sofapaka edging it: two wins, two draws, one loss, scoring eight and conceding five.
Key results include Sofapaka's 4-1 home rout on December 7, 2024, a 1-1 draw on April 13, 2024, and a 0-1 away win on April 4, 2025.
Ulinzi's sole recent victory was a 1-0 home win on September 24, 2023, but they have failed to beat Sofapaka in the last five league games overall.
At home, Sofapaka holds the upper hand, unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw), while Ulinzi's away form against them includes one win, two draws, and two losses.
Trends favor unders: the last three H2H produced Under 2.5 goals, with no BTTS in the most recent two, aligning with Sofapaka's 67% Under 2.5 rate in recent games and Ulinzi's 100% in their last three.
Batoto Ba Mungu boss Akwana is expected to name a near-full-strength side, with no major injuries reported after the Bandari loss.
Joseph Kuloba, the pacy striker with three goals in his last four (including the Posta winner), will lead the line, partnering Bramwel Simiyu (two goals) in a likely 4-4-2.
Midfield maestro Japheth Mzungu, who has created the most chances (10) for Sofapaka this season, retains his spot, flanked by Adrian Oloo and Daniel Ng'ang'a for width.
Defensively, Stephen Bonny and Roy Okal anchor the back four, with Vinedine Ambesa and Shaibu Idrissu providing overlaps as the fullbacks.
Goalkeeper Edward Olak has kept four clean sheets, but the focus is on tightening transitions. Potential bench options include Stanley Lugalia for late impact.
Ulinzi Stars are set to field a strong and balanced XI for this afternoon’s crunch clash against Sofapaka at Kasarani Annex.
Between the posts, Sylvainne Ricks will most likely start, flanked by a solid back four of Brian Birgen at right-back, Talena Ochieng at left-back, and the imposing central-defensive partnership of Bidad Abonga and Andrew Otunda, both physical, aerially dominant, and quick to step into midfield when required.
In front of them, Brian Okite and Emillio Okello form a disciplined double pivot tasked with screening the defence and breaking up Sofapaka’s central progression through Japheth Mzungu.
Boniface Muchiri operates as the advanced No.10 with freedom to drift, link play, and arrive late in the box.
Leading the line is Paul Okoth, who will act as the focal point, hold up play, and bring the wide runners and Muchiri into dangerous positions.
It is a classic Ulinzi 4-2-3-1 built for defensive solidity first, but with a genuine counter-attacking threat whenever possession is won.
Sofapaka, under Akwana, intend to impose a high-tempo, transitional style in their 4-4-2, leveraging average possession to probe centrally via Mzungu before exploding wide with Oloo's crosses.
They will press in a 4-4-2 out of possession to force Ulinzi long, targeting second balls for Kuloba's runs.
Home intentions lean toward dominance: quick regains to feed the front two. Overcommitment could expose flanks to Ulinzi counters.
Ulinzi could use a 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1, aiming for possession through patient build-up and set-pieces.
Their intention is damage limitation away - compact midfield to frustrate Mzungu, then hit on breaks via Okoth's hold-up and wide areas.
Tactically, expect funneling to wide areas and late counters, but their 0.9 yellows per game suggest discipline over aggression.
The midfield area clash will dictate: if Sofapaka overloads, Ulinzi drops deeper; if Ulinzi screens well, stalemate ensues.
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Ulinzi Stars, deprived of several regulars, may adopt a more cautious, counter-attacking setup.. Five key players—Leonlevitt Otieno,Felix Otieno, Fredrick Oduor, Joseph Omuse, and Joseph Ochieng—have reportedly been ruled out due to military duty.
They might lean on less experienced forwards or rely on set pieces.
Given their recent poor form, their biggest chance lies in exploiting mistakes from a more adventurous Sofapaka side, but their weakened spine limits their threat.
Key Pointers
Ulinzi Stars have won just 1 of their last 8 matches in the Premier League.
Under 2.5 goals have been scored in Sofapaka’s last 3 matches in the Premier League.
Sofapaka Nairobi haven't been defeated by Ulinzi Stars in 5 of their last 6 league meetings.
Ulinzi Stars haven't lost in 5 of their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.
Ulinzi's home form is dire, netting two while leaking five, with 50% BTTS exposing frailty. Away, they are tough nuts: five games, two wins, two draws, one loss, four goals scored, three conceded - drawing at top sides like Gor (1-1) via counters, but winless in four of five vs. mid-table foes.
This screams a tactical chess match: Sofapaka's transitions vs. Ulinzi's block, with H2H unders and form favoring caution. A hard-fought draw, as Sofapaka edge early but Ulinzi's resilience holds - echoing their April stalemate.
Prediction; Draw/ Under 2.5 Goals.
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