BETTING GUIDE: Marseille Vs AS Monaco, match preview, team news and betting tip
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Reading Time: 5min | Sun. 14.12.25. | 09:24
This fixture has been entertaining and goal-heavy. The last six head-to-head meetings have produced an average of 3.67 goals per game, with both teams scoring in five of those encounters
Marseille and Monaco will round off the 16th round of Ligue 1 fixtures when they meet at the Stade Vélodrome in a clash that carries both table significance and betting intrigue. Both sides arrive wounded after defeats on matchday 15, with Marseille slipping to third following a narrow loss at Lille, while Monaco dropped to seventh after being edged out by Brest.
This encounter comes at a delicate moment in the season, where momentum, confidence, and tactical clarity could shape the trajectory of each club heading into the new year.
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Marseille’s season has been one of near-misses at the summit.
Just two matchdays ago, Roberto De Zerbi’s side had a genuine opportunity to go top of Ligue 1, but back-to-back dropped points have left them five points adrift of leaders Lens.
A 2-2 home draw against Toulouse, followed by a 1-0 defeat away at Lille, has slightly punctured their momentum.
However, context matters: Marseille remain one of the most formidable home sides in the division and have yet to taste defeat domestically at the Vélodrome this season.
They have claimed 17 of their 29 league points at home and are unbeaten in seven Ligue 1 home matches, a record that underpins their status as favourites in this fixture.
In terms of recent form, Marseille’s numbers are still strong despite the recent stutter.
Across their last six matches in all competitions, they have recorded four wins, one draw, and just one defeat, averaging a high total goals output per game.
Their attacking production has been especially impressive, with three or more goals scored in four home league matches and a combined 23 goals netted at the Vélodrome this season.
Even when falling behind, Marseille have shown resilience, recovering points in four league matches where they conceded first. This ability to respond under pressure has been a defining feature of their campaign.
Monaco, by contrast, continue to wrestle with inconsistency.
Their league position in seventh feels a fair reflection of a season marked by short-lived highs and recurring setbacks. The high point came with a statement win over PSG earlier in the campaign, but that result failed to spark a sustained run.
Since then, defeats to Lens, Rennes, and most recently Brest have exposed lingering defensive fragility. Monaco’s Ligue 1 form over the last six matches reads poorly, with four losses and only two wins, while their away record is a particular concern, having failed to win in their last three road games across all competitions.
That said, Monaco do arrive with a small boost from Europe. Their midweek 1-0 Champions League victory over Galatasaray helped steady nerves and restore belief, and it may influence team selection and tactical bravery.
However, domestic travel has been problematic for Sébastien Pocognoli’s side. Dating back to last season, Monaco have conceded at least one goal in 11 consecutive away league matches and have managed just one competitive clean sheet away from home this season, which came in Europe rather than Ligue 1.
With only three wins in their last ten away matches, their vulnerabilities as visitors are well documented.
From a tactical perspective, Marseille are expected to lean heavily on their high-tempo, attacking identity at home.
De Zerbi has consistently favoured a proactive approach built around ball progression, positional rotations in midfield, and aggressive wing play. Using a 4-3-3 base, Marseille look to dominate territory and overload wide areas, with quick switches of play designed to isolate fullbacks and create cut-back opportunities. Players like Mason Greenwood and Paixao stretch defences horizontally, while Pierre Emerick Aubameyang’s movement between centre-backs remains a constant threat.
Midfield control through players such as Vermeeren and Højbjerg allows Marseille to sustain pressure and recycle attacks quickly after turnovers.
Monaco are more likely to adopt a pragmatic yet flexible 4-2-3-1 approach.
Pocognoli’s side typically seek balance through a double pivot, aiming to protect the back four while allowing creative players like Aleksandr Golovin, Takumi Minamino, and Manghes Akliouche freedom between the lines.
Their attacking threat often comes in transition, particularly through the pace and directness of Balogun, who thrives on space behind defences. However, Monaco’s issues arise when forced to defend deep for extended periods.
Their defensive line has struggled with runners from midfield and overlapping fullbacks, a weakness Marseille are well equipped to exploit at home.
Team news also plays into the betting narrative. Marseille may be without Ruben Blanco once again, while Amine Gouiri remains doubtful with a back issue.
Facundo Medina and Hamed Traore are fitness concerns, though Aubameyang could feature before AFCON commitments potentially rule him out.
Monaco, meanwhile, welcome back Denis Zakaria and Thilo Kehrer from suspension, a significant boost in midfield stability and defensive organisation.
However, injuries to Ansu Fati and Christian Mawissa, alongside Eric Dier’s questionable fitness, limit their options, particularly in defensive rotation.
Historically, this fixture has been entertaining and goal-heavy. The last six head-to-head meetings have produced an average of 3.67 goals per game, with both teams scoring in five of those encounters.
Marseille are unbeaten in their last three home meetings against Monaco, including a 2-1 comeback win in this exact fixture last season. While Monaco have picked up points in four of the last five league clashes overall, they have not won at the Vélodrome since 2022, a psychological barrier that continues to loom.
Key Pointers;
Monaco lost three of their last six matches.
In the last six matches, Marseille only lost once.
Marseille won seven of their last 10 home games.
Monaco have won only three of their last 10 away matches.
From a betting perspective, Marseille’s home strength and Monaco’s away fragility suggest the hosts should control large spells of the game, but Monaco’s attacking quality makes a clean sheet unlikely.
Given the attacking profiles, historical trends, and recent statistical patterns, the market that stands out most is goals rather than a match winner. Both teams are capable of scoring, and both have shown defensive lapses in recent weeks.
With Marseille’s attacking intent at home, Monaco’s tendency to concede on the road, and a head-to-head history filled with high-scoring encounters, this fixture shapes up as another Ligue 1 classic where goals are the most reliable angle for bettors.
Prediction; Over 2.5 Goals/Marseille Win
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