Reasons why critics are skeptical about Faith Kipyegon breaking the mile record

On Wednesday, 23 April, Nike announced that triple Olympic champion Faith Kipyegon will attempt to break the four-minute barrier in the mile on Thursday, 26 June, at the Stade Charléty in Paris.

The news sent ripples of excitement through the athletics world, but not everyone is convinced that the feat is achievable, at least not yet.

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One of the most vocal sceptics is Robert Johnson, co-founder of LetsRun.com and a highly respected figure in distance running circles.

Johnson, who once helped pace Catherine Ndereba to a women’s marathon world record and built an Ivy League dynasty during his decade-long coaching stint at Cornell, has openly expressed serious doubts about Kipyegon’s chances.

"She’s not going to break 4:00. And it’s not going to be particularly close," Johnson bluntly stated.

His scepticism is rooted in hard numbers. Kipyegon’s current mile personal best stands at 4:07.64, a far cry from the magical 4:00 barrier.

Even when considering her stellar 1500m personal best of 3:49.04, the equivalent conversion to the mile is roughly 4:07.41.

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The notion that enhanced pacing with multiple pacemakers surrounding her throughout the race, rather than just one in front for half the race as was the case during her previous mile world record, could bridge a seven-second gap was, in Johnson’s words, "crazy."

Fueling his argument further was Kipyegon's performance at the Xiamen Diamond League meeting, where she opened her 2025 season with an electrifying 1000m run.

Kipyegon clocked 2:29.21, narrowly missing the long-standing world record of 2:28.98 set by Russia’s Svetlana Masterkova in 1996.

While a near world-record season debut shows her greatness, it also exposed the magnitude of the task ahead.

As Johnson explained, maintaining her 2:29.21 pace for a full mile (1609 meters) would translate to a finishing time of approximately 4:00.08, just shy of the mark, and that is without factoring in the inevitable slowdown that typically occurs over a longer distance.

Even if one projects improvements accounting for a perfect race, better rabbiting, and peak conditioning in two months, Johnson calculates that Kipyegon would still only reach about 2:27 in the 1000m.

That would still place her well short of the fitness required to dip under 4:00 in the mile.

But there is a wild card: advancements in shoe technology.

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Nike famously shattered marathon barriers when Eliud Kipchoge broke the two-hour mark in 2019 under highly controlled conditions, aided by revolutionary footwear.

However, Johnson pointed out that track racing, with its lack of hills, turns, and water stops, offers less room for engineering miracles.

"If there was a crazy new shoe that could do it, wouldn’t Kipyegon have been testing it already?" he wondered.

Still, Johnson admits that Kipyegon’s sheer brilliance as a three-time Olympic champion and unbeaten in the 1500m for nearly four years makes it tempting to dream.

"It’s a testament to her greatness and Nike’s audacity that I even found myself arguing with myself," he wrote.