Final battle for the F1 throne

There is only a little time left before the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, which will decide the 2025 Formula 1 world champion. Lando Norris leads the overall standings with 408 points, 12 more than the reigning champion Max Verstappen and 16 more than his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri. And it is precisely those three who will start the race from the first three grid positions. The order is: Verstappen, Norris, Piastri. The leading trio made Saturday’s qualifying extremely exciting ahead of the decisive showdown, primarily Red Bull’s Verstappen, as both of the laps he set were enough to secure the vitally important pole position. After qualifying, the Dutchman explained that “driving under pressure” was the key to winning pole, and considering that over the past ten seasons pole position has often been converted into victories—four times by Verstappen himself—there is a strong chance that the same could happen this year as well. However, he will also need a bit of luck to win the title.

Let us recall that Norris, who starts the race from second place, has the best chances of winning this year’s title. The Briton needs to finish the race at Yas Marina in one of the top three positions, regardless of his rivals’ results. If he finishes fourth or fifth, he will need Verstappen not to win; if he finishes sixth or seventh, neither Verstappen nor Piastri may win. If Norris crosses the line in eighth place, Verstappen would have to be third and Piastri second. Ninth place for Norris would mean the Dutchman must finish fourth, while his teammate could still be second. If Norris takes the last point-scoring position and wins one point, the title will belong to him only if Verstappen finishes no higher than fourth and Piastri third. The same applies if Norris finishes outside the top ten.

One last race - who is new Formula 1 champion?

As far as Max Verstappen is concerned, to defend his title he must not, under any circumstances, finish outside the podium. The fact that he has not been off the podium in the last nine races should boost his confidence. But even if the reigning champion wins, Norris must not finish better than fourth place, regardless of Piastri’s result. If Verstappen finishes second, Norris would need to be at least eighth, and Piastri third. If Verstappen ends up on the lowest step of the podium, he will need Norris to finish ninth or worse, and Piastri third.

When it comes to Piastri’s calculations, the Australian will need a great deal of luck. He will become champion only if he wins and Norris finishes sixth, regardless of Verstappen’s result. If Piastri finishes second, he will need Norris to score no more than one point and Verstappen to miss the podium entirely. To sum it up, Verstappen needs to score 13 points more than Norris, and Piastri 17 more. In the event of a tie at the top of the standings, the title would go to the Briton due to having more second-place finishes during the season.

Can Verstappen claim his fifth consecutive title, or will Norris or Piastri write their names into the history books for the first time? What kind of team orders, if any, will McLaren use if they sense the title is under threat? Will an outsider influence the championship battle? The answers to these and many other questions will come soon, after the race that starts and promises a spectacular season finale.