BJK Cup 2023 Permutations: What Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria need in order to grab top spot in Pool A

The penultimate day of the 2023 Billie Jean King Cup, currently ongoing at the Nairobi Club, promises a Friday full of mathematical calculations in Pool A if hosts Kenya do not take care of business by themselves on the court.

As things stand, Kenya lead the way on four points, having won their opening four games, where they got going by stunning top seeds Morocco 2-1 before picking up 3-0 wins over Botswana, Uganda, and Namibia.

The results have Kenya topping their pool on 4 points with a win-loss ratio of 11-1, the difference meaning that the team has won ten matches.

Morocco sit second in the log on 3 points with a win ratio of 10-2 (8 wins).

Nigeria, whom Kenya face in the crucial tie on Friday, also have 3 points but with a 9-3 ratio (6 wins).

Only the three teams have a mathematical chance of taking the single ticket to the promotional playoff match offered to the winners of Pool A against the winners of Pool B.

Permutation One: Kenya win against Nigeria

Should Kenya win their tie against Nigeria, the hosts will comfortably guarantee the ticket to Saturday's playoff match, which will see the winner promoted to Euro/Africa Group II next year.

Assuming that Morocco beat Botswana 3-0 in their final match, which looks like the case, and Kenya win only one match out of the three against Nigeria, Kenya will lose top spot to Morocco courtesy of the number of matches won.

At that point, both teams will be tied on 4 points, but Morocco would be on 13-2 (eleven wins), while Kenya will be 12-2 (10 wins).

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And in case of a tie on points, matches won take precedence.

Nigeria would be at 11-4 (7 wins), which means they would also be out.

Permutation Two: Nigeria beat Kenya 3-0

If Nigeria beat Kenya 3-0, the West Africans will need favours from Botswana, which would have to beat Morocco at least 2-1.

Such a result would put Nigeria at 12-3 (9 wins), Morocco at 11-4 (7 wins), and Kenya at 11-4 (7 wins).

While there is still room for Nigeria, they will still depend on favours from others.

Permutation Three: Morocco beat Botswana 3-0

If Morocco whitewash Botswana, they will need favours from Nigeria to beat Kenya at least 2-1 if they are to finish top.

Their win would take them to 13-2 (11 wins), Kenya would be 12-3 (9 wins), and Nigeria would be 11-4 (7 wins).

Either way, Morocco would still need favours.

Kenya remains the only team with their own fate in their hands.

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