The battle of the four armies for Champions League!

The quality just isn’t what it used to be. In fact, it might be at its lowest point since the start of the 21st century. That’s evident from the fact that players like Meret, Rrahmani, Anguissa, and Raspadori are in contention to win the scudetto. It doesn’t feel right. Still, even amid a significant decline, Serie A offers a thrilling finish—at least when it comes to the race for fourth place and a ticket to the Champions League.

Serie A charms: The Romans and Northerners fight key battles

Napoli, Inter, and Atalanta are all but certain to qualify, but one more spot is up for grabs in the remaining three rounds. Four teams are competing for that final ticket to Europe’s elite competition. What makes the battle even more exciting is that Juventus, Roma, Lazio, and Bologna are separated by just a single point.

The giants from Turin and both Rome clubs have 63 points, while Bologna is just behind with 62. Theoretically, Fiorentina (59 points) is also still in the running, although their chances took a big hit with Sunday’s loss at the Olimpico.

Inter and Napoli continue their Scudetto two-horse race with 1-0 wins

Given how tight it is, it’s very possible that teams end the season with the same number of points, which raises the question: what are the tiebreaker rules for Champions League qualification?

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head results between tied teams, followed by goal difference in those matches.

At the moment, Juventus has the edge over Lazio, though they still have a return fixture in the capital. Juve is level with both Roma and Bologna. As for Roma, they are ahead of their city rivals but behind Bologna. Lazio trails all three, while Bologna has a better head-to-head record than both Rome clubs and is even with Juventus.

If more than two teams finish level on points, direct head-to-heads are no longer used; instead, overall goal difference determines the ranking. That’s tight as well: Juventus leads (+20), followed by Roma (+18), Bologna (+15), and Lazio (+13). And yes, even the goal difference could be equal. In that case, the next tiebreaker is the total number of goals scored. Lazio leads there (58), followed by Bologna (53), Juventus (52), and Roma (50).

So what happens if everything is still tied? Get this: a draw—yes, a literal drawing of lots—could decide who qualifies for the Champions League. Imagine a place in the most prestigious European competition being determined by pulling balls out of a pot.

To avoid that scenario, these teams will need to go all in. Each club has three games left, with at least six crucial matchups coming up that will likely determine who secures a spot in the Champions League next season.

Next weekend features Atalanta vs. Roma, Lazio vs. Juventus, and Milan vs. Bologna. The following weekend: Fiorentina vs. Bologna, Inter vs. Lazio, and Roma vs. Milan. On the final matchday, most teams have relatively easy fixtures.

SERIE A - MATCHDAY 35

Friday

Torino - Venezia 1-1 (0-1)

/Vlasic 77 pen - Perez 37/

Saturday

Cagliari - Udinese 1-2 (1-1)

/Zortea 35 - Zarraga 27, Kristensen 67/

Parma - Como 0-1 (0-0)

/Strefezza 79/

Lecce - Napoli 0-1 (0-1)

/Raspadori 24/

Inter - Verona 1-0 (1-0)

/Asllani 9 pen/

Sunday

Empoli - Lazio 0-1 (0-1)

/Dia 1/

Monza - Atalanta (0-2)

/De Ketelaere 12, 23/

Roma - Fiorentina 1-0 (1-0)

/Dovbyk 45+5/

Bologna - Juventus 1-1 (0-1)

/Freuler 54 - Thuram 9/

Monday

21.45: (4.70) Genoa (3.50) Milan (1.80)

***odds are subject to change***