Half of the Premier League teams are rooting for City

Today is the final round of the Premier League season, which will answer one key question: how many English clubs will play in next season’s Champions League. Five spots are already guaranteed, but whether England gets a sixth depends entirely on Aston Villa and whether they finish fourth or fifth. Villa visit the runners-up Manchester City, and fans in Bournemouth and Brighton will be cheering for them — while supporters in Portugal, Norway, and Greece will be hoping for the opposite. UEFA’s regulations are somewhat complicated, but very precise. Based on performances over the last five seasons, England has four guaranteed Champions League spots. In addition, the Premier League earned one bonus place because English clubs collectively produced the best results in Europe this season, plus another because Aston Villa beat Freiburg 3-0 in last Wednesday’s Europa League final. However, that extra berth is “personalized” and can only belong to Unai Emery’s side.

That means if Aston Villa finish in the Premier League top four, UEFA automatically considers that they do not need the additional invitation to the Champions League. In that case, the spot would instead go to the highest-ranked club in the qualifying rounds based on UEFA coefficient points — namely Sporting Lisbon, runners-up in Portugal, who would otherwise enter in the third qualifying round. So, if Aston Villa stay ahead of Liverpool today, Sporting will secure automatic qualification for the Champions League group stage, which would trigger additional reshuffling in qualifying. Again based on coefficients, runners-up from Norway and Greece — Bodo/Glimt and Olympiacos — would move from the second to the third qualifying round.

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If England remains with only five Champions League representatives, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Aston Villa would be joined by either Liverpool or Bournemouth. Liverpool have a three-point advantage and a six-goal superior goal difference, so only a heavy home defeat to Brentford combined with a Bournemouth victory over Nottingham Forest could deny the Reds a place in the Champions League. The far more favorable scenario for Bournemouth is a Manchester City victory over Aston Villa. In that case, it would not matter how Liverpool perform against Brentford — as long as Bournemouth win, they would leapfrog Emery’s side thanks to a better goal difference. That outcome would also hand England a sixth Champions League place, which would most likely end up going to the Vitality Stadium club.

Villa’s win changes the Champions League fight in England

Indeed, Bournemouth currently sit three points ahead of seventh-placed Brighton, meaning even a draw at Nottingham Forest would be enough to secure sixth place. Even if they lose, Brighton would still face a difficult task against a Manchester United side that, while objectively less motivated now, has been excellent throughout the second half of the season. Brighton will certainly chase victory against the Red Devils because even if Aston Villa stay unbeaten and prevent England from receiving an extra Champions League berth, seventh place still guarantees Europa League qualification.

Spurs: Pride, belief and captain’s betrayal

Brighton hold a one-point lead over Chelsea and Brentford, and a two-point advantage over Sunderland. All three clubs are dreaming of Europa League football or at least a place in the Conference League through an eighth-place finish. Particularly intriguing is the direct clash in northern England between Sunderland and Chelsea. That means there is a genuine possibility that Chelsea could miss out on Europe entirely — less than a year after winning the Club World Cup. In theory, next season could feature as many as nine Premier League clubs in UEFA competitions, although that no longer depends on the final round of league fixtures. The decisive factor is Crystal Palace, who will definitely not finish among the top eight in the league. The London side face Rayo Vallecano in next Wednesday’s Conference League final, and lifting the trophy would secure them a Europa League spot.

ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE ROUND 38

Sunday

18.00: (1.90) Brighton (4.15) Man.Utd. (3.65)

18.00: (2.40) Burnley (3.40) Wolverhampton (2.95)

18.00: (4.60) Crystal Palace (3.60) Arsenal (1.80)

18.00: (2.90) Fulham (3.75) Newcastle (2.30)

18.00: (1.85) Liverpool (4.05) Brentford (3.80)

18.00: (1.33) Man.City (6.00) Aston Villa (7.50)

18.00: (3.20) Nott.Forest (3.75) Bournemouth (2.10)

18.00: (3.60) Sunderland (3.45) Chelsea (2.05)

18.00: (1.93) Tottenham (3.50) Everton (4.00)

18.00: (1.87) West Ham (3.90) Leeds (3.85)

* odds are subject to change