FKFPL title permutations: A look at where Gor Mahia and AFC Leopards could win or lose it all

The FKF Premier League is in its homestretch with match week 28 on the offing with seven games remaining before the season comes to a close.

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While there are activities at every stage of the table, the majority of eyes are on the title race where the team with the highest number of points after match week 34 will be declared the winners.

As it stands, Gor Mahia are at the summit of the league table with 57 points, two more than their arch-rivals AFC Leopards at second place, with Kakamega Homeboyz coming a distant third with 46 points.

Defending champions Police FC and Shabana occupy the fourth and fifth places with 44 and 43 points respectively.

With the current table standings, Gor Mahia and AFC Leopards have the best chances to clinch the title even though mathematically and logically, all the top five teams still have a chance.

Since the league was expanded to 18 teams in 2018, 70 points have been the magic mark to clinch the league title, while in some seasons like last season, just 65 points were enough for Police to be declared champions.

The highest points that a second placed team has ever garnered is 69 points, achieved by Tusker in the 2022/23 season when Tusker lost the league to Gor Mahia at 70 points while the highest points remain 75, achieved by Gor Mahia in 2018.

With seven matches to play, the highest that K’Ogalo can reach is 78, while Ingwe could get as high as 76 points.

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For Gor Mahia, they have generally had a good run of form, having won 13 of their last 20 games, losing just three in the process.

Prior to their 1-0 loss to Tusker in their last match, the Charkes Akonnor-coached side were on a 16-match unbeaten run that included 11 wins.

However, K’Ogalo had been grinding results in the recent past, with fans claiming their wins have not been convincing, a matter that caught up with them in the last two matches when they were held to a barren draw by Kariobangi Sharks before losing to Tusker.

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Gor Mahia’s remaining fixtures are against Bandari, the Mashemeji Derby against AFC Leopards, Kakamega Homeboyz, Police FC, Murang'a Seal, Mara Sugar and Nairobi United on closing day.

Leopards, on the other hand, face defending champions Police FC, military side Ulinzi Stars, the Mashemeji Derby, Kakamega Homeboyz, Mara Sugar, APS Bomet and close the season with a clash against Bidco United.

From the fixtures, K’Ogalo seem to have the hardest hurdle with six of their remaining fixtures coming against top 10 teams, with only 11th placed Mara Sugar out of that bracket.

For their next four fixtures, the 21-time record league champions have a tricky fixture against Bandari on Sunday, 19 April followed by second placed Leopards, third placed Homeboyz and fourth-placed Police.

Leopards will face defending champions Police, relegation-threatened Ulinzi Stars, as well as K’Ogalo and Homeboyz.

The last three fixtures for Gor will be against ninth placed Murang'a Seal, Mara Sugar, and finally a stubborn match against Naibois, who beat them in the 2025 Mozzart Bet Cup final.

On their part, Leopards would have relatively fair fixtures against Mara Sugar and against relegation zone sides APS Bomet and Bidco United.

While Gor have faltered in their last two matches against Sharks and Tusker as well as scoring an 80th-minute winner in their last win, a 2-1 victory over Shabana, Leopards are on a four-match run of victories, which they have iced with four clean sheets.

Leopards have done so amidst an injury crisis in the den, something they have now overcome with the return of vice captain Kayci Odhiambo, his central defense partner Emmanuel Lwangu, goalkeeper Humphrey Katasi, and winger Julius Masaba.

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While the title race focus will be on the Mashemeji Derby which will have a huge impact, the title race will most likely be won away from that match, as recent seasons have seen teams eyeing the title losing matches against the most unlikely of opponents.

For the other teams in the title race, Homeboyz can have a maximum of 67 points, but having completed three consecutive victories only once this season, they are most likely going to drop points and jeopardize their title chances.

Police FC, on the other hand, can only achieve 65 points which has yielded the title once. Furthermore, coach Nicholas Muyoti threw in the towel for the league, stating that his team has chosen to major in the Mozzart Bet Cup.

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Shabana are 14 points shy of Gor Mahia, and having lost four of their past five league matches as well as managerial changes, they are highly unlikely to clinch the title.

In the end, the team with the right stamina, mental strength and calmness in the last seven matches will clinch the title.