BETTING GUIDE: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid, Match Preview, Team News and Prediction
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Reading Time: 6min | Wed. 03.12.25. | 10:50
Athletic are pushing to maintain their place in the top half and stay in contention for a European qualification berth, while Real Madrid, having relinquished top spot to Barcelona, must find their rhythm in LaLiga again after a frustrating winless run
Athletic Bilbao welcome Real Madrid to San Mamés in a fixture that arrives at an intriguing moment for both sides, with each entering the encounter carrying their own form concerns, motivations and tactical questions.
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While the season remains long, this clash holds significant weight for the ambitions of both clubs.
Athletic are pushing to maintain their place in the top half and stay in contention for a European qualification berth, while Real Madrid, having relinquished top spot to Barcelona, must find their rhythm in LaLiga again after a frustrating winless run.
With Real second on the table, one point behind their rivals but coming off three consecutive league draws, the pressure is mounting to re-establish momentum.
Athletic, meanwhile, sit eighth, with 20 points from 14 games, and although they remain competitive, they have struggled for the consistency required to challenge for the top four.
Athletic's approach to this game is buoyed by a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante, a result that ended a brief wobble in their attacking output.
Ernesto Valverde’s side had previously gone two games without a goal, and while their win in Valencia restored confidence, their overall inconsistency remains a concern.
The Basque club have won six, drawn two and lost six in LaLiga this season, a record that reflects their fluctuating form and the impact of injuries throughout the campaign.
Their home form has been mixed, collecting 13 points from seven matches at San Mamés, and it is this inconsistency at home that threatens their European aspirations.
Yet they will take encouragement from last season’s 2-1 victory over Real Madrid in this corresponding fixture, proving that San Mamés can still be a difficult venue for even the strongest visitors.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, travels north during one of their more difficult stretches of the season.
Their 1-1 draw against Girona extended a sequence of three consecutive league stalemates - something they had not experienced in the same season since December 2019.
Xabi Alonso’s side remains structurally strong and highly productive in possession, but they have struggled with accuracy in the final third across recent weeks, often dominating matches without converting control into decisive results.
Their last league win came back on Saturday, 1 November, a 4-0 victory over Valencia, and since then they have been forced to settle for a share of the points against Rayo Vallecano and Elche, as well as the weekend’s stalemate in Girona.
Madrid’s away form in particular has dipped, with just one win from their last five away fixtures, and with injuries and rotations affecting their squad, the visitors arrive with more questions than answers.
In terms of team news, Athletic will benefit from the return of Ruiz de Galarreta after suspension, a welcome boost in midfield, though Oihan Sancet remains unavailable due to his own ban.
However, Valverde’s injury list is still considerable. Benat Prados, Unai Egiluz, Maroan Sannadi and Robert Navarro are all ruled out, while key attacker Inaki Williams - who has missed seven games with a groin problem - faces a race against time to feature.
Navarro’s absence opens a path for young talent Unai Gomez to start again, while there is confidence that Aymeric Laporte will return after missing the Levante match with illness.
Athletic’s balance has often depended on their wide players, and with Nico Williams finding form, scoring two of the team’s last three goals, his impact will be crucial in stretching Real Madrid’s defence.
For Real Madrid, the squad picture is similarly mixed.
Dani Carvajal remains out with a long-term knee injury, while the fitness of Dean Huijsen, David Alaba and Raul Asencio must be assessed ahead of the game.
The positive news for Alonso is the return to action of Eder Militao and Antonio Rüdiger, both of whom featured against Girona and are expected to continue at the heart of the defence.
Alvaro Carreras is likely to return at left-back, adding more stability to the defense line. In midfield, Eduardo Camavinga could be reinstated to add physicality and ball progression, which would allow Jude Bellingham to operate higher between the lines, supporting a front pairing of Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappé.
Mbappé, currently LaLiga’s top scorer with 14 goals in 14 games, remains central to Madrid’s attacking aspirations and will again carry the responsibility of unpicking an Athletic back line that has conceded exactly once in four of their last five home fixtures.
Tactically, this match promises to be a duel between Athletic’s intense pressing-oriented approach at home and Madrid’s possession-driven control.
Athletic thrive on energy, territorial pressure and the emotional surge of San Mamés, often looking to disrupt opponents with aggressive midfield engagements and aerial duels.
With Nico Williams operating from the wing, they will aim to isolate Madrid’s right defensive flank, especially in Carvajal’s absence.
Athletic’s fullbacks will look to push high, knowing Madrid have at times been vulnerable in early wide deliveries. Madrid, meanwhile, will expect to dominate possession, build patiently through their midfield and rely on the dynamism of Vinicius and Mbappé in transition.
Alonso will stress the need for composure, given that Madrid have conceded first in each of their last three competitive matches, a trend they must reverse to avoid allowing the atmosphere at San Mamés to intensify.
Historically, this fixture has leaned in Madrid’s favour, with Los Blancos losing just one of the last six meetings (four wins, one draw).
All four of those victories have included clean sheets, underlining their defensive control in most encounters. Interestingly, none of the last seven clashes at San Mamés have ended level, a trend that adds intrigue as both sides seek a decisive result.
Athletic’s strength at home lies in their organisation and their compact shape in the opening stages; no team in LaLiga has conceded fewer first-half goals at home this season, and Madrid themselves have not seen a goal before the 40th minute in their last three domestic matches.
Athletic’s best pathway to success will come through exploiting Madrid’s recent struggles to defend wide areas and their difficulty converting chances.
For Madrid, the intention is clear: regain control of the title race by re-establishing ruthless efficiency in the final third.
While the visitors have the talent to overpower Athletic on paper, their current form suggests a tightly contested encounter, with momentum swinging according to which team can impose its rhythm early.
Key Pointers
- Athletic have conceded just one first-half goal at home this season, underlining their compact starts
- Real Madrid have drawn their last three league matches and have struggled for accuracy in attack
- Athletic have won two of the last seven home H2Hs, with none of those matches ending in a draw
- Madrid have conceded first in their last three competitive games
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
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