Almiron’s red card to prove costly against Algeria?

For the first time in nearly a century of World Cup history, the tournament has taken on a new dimension. Even teams that finish third in their group now have a chance to progress. The change is a consequence of the tournament's expansion to 48 teams and the introduction of an additional knockout round, meaning the elimination stage now begins with the Round of 32 rather than the Round of 16. As a result, the standings of the third-placed teams have suddenly become one of the most intriguing storylines of the tournament—and they will only become more important as the group stage draws to a close.

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To recap, the 12 group winners and 12 runners-up qualify automatically for the Round of 32. They are joined by the eight best third-placed teams. That means four of the 12 third-placed sides will be eliminated. At this stage, Sweden national football team (after drawing with Japan national football team), Ecuador national football team (following their comeback win over Germany national football team), and Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team (thanks to their victory over Qatar national football team) have already secured qualification through this route. Paraguay national football team are also on the verge of advancing after playing out a goalless draw with Australia national football team. In the vast majority of tournament simulations, four points are enough to send Paraguay through, although their goal difference of -2 remains a slight disadvantage.

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According to the current projections, both Croatia national football team and Algeria national football team could move above Paraguay if they draw their respective matches against Ghana national football team and Austria national football team. For example, if Algeria and Austria were to play out a 0-0 draw, Algeria would move ahead of Paraguay on the basis of the fair play ranking, provided they do not accumulate too many yellow or red cards in their final group match. Although currently bottom of the third-placed standings, Senegal national football team still have a realistic chance of sneaking into the Round of 32. To do so, they would need to defeat Iraq national football team by at least two goals, which would allow them to overtake South Korea national football team.

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If teams are level on points in the ranking of third-placed sides, the tie-breakers are applied in the following order: Goal difference, Goals scored, Fair play record (yellow and red cards). And here we have to got back to Paraguay’s game against Turkey when Miguel Almiron was red-carded for covering his mouth while talking. A red card is counted as minus four points, which puts Paraguay in a very awkward situation. They now have -11 points in terms of fair play record and it could be a problem. If the results of the other matches meant that the eighth best third-place spot was contested between Algeria and Paraguay, the two teams would then be separated according to a fourth criterion: the number of fair-play points and it’s clear that Algeria would qualify.

WORLD CUP - GROUP STAGE (ROUND 3)

Group I

Friday

22.00: (5.50) Norway (3.90) France (1.70)

22.00: (1.27) Senegal (6.00) Iraq (11.0)

***odds are subject to change***

Group H

Saturday

03.00: (2.50) Cape Verde (3.30) Saudi Arabia (2.85)

03.00: (7.75) Uruguay (4.30) Spain (1.50)

***odds are subject to change***