WCQ CAF: Finish is here, more thrilling than ever!

The October international window has never been more important, never this packed, uncertain, and charged with footballing emotion. For the first time in history, a global tournament will feature 48 teams, and that single FIFA decision has opened the doors of paradise for those who have been waiting for decades.

In Asia, Africa, and CONCACAF, a new era is now unfolding. Uzbekistan and Jordan have already crossed the threshold of eternity, securing their first-ever World Cup qualifications. Behind them comes a whole legion of hopefuls: Cape Verde, Benin, Gabon, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, Oman, Indonesia, Suriname, El Salvador, Curacao…

Each of these teams has hope right now (some more, some less) and awaits their historic autumn day when football could transform into an epic fairy tale, while some will hope to see that day in March next year during the intercontinental playoff on neutral ground in Mexico.

Africa has gained significantly from the World Cup’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams. Instead of the previous five slots, the continent now has nine guaranteed places, with a tenth team entering the intercontinental playoff.

The African qualifying system features 54 teams split into nine groups of six. Group winners qualify directly for the World Cup, while the four best runners-up enter a continental playoff in November. That playoff functions as a mini-tournament with semifinals and a final, and the winner earns a place in the intercontinental playoff the following March.

So far, eight of the ten rounds of Africa’s main qualifying stage have been completed, and with two rounds remaining, only Morocco and Tunisia have mathematically secured their spots. October will see the final two rounds, after which seven more World Cup participants will be confirmed, along with the four teams entering the playoffs.

Some teams are on the verge of making it to the global stage, with only a miracle standing in their way. Egypt, for example, is set to qualify as early as Wednesday, holding a five-point lead over second-placed Burkina Faso, and today they face the relatively weak Djibouti at 19:00.

Algeria is in a similar position, with a four-point advantage over Uganda and Mozambique. If they beat Somalia on Thursday, the Desert Foxes will secure their first World Cup berth since Brazil 2014, when they advanced from the group stage ahead of Russia and South Korea, before narrowly losing to eventual champions Germany in the round of 16 after extra time.

One of the most remarkable stories of African qualifying is Cape Verde. The Blue Sharks had never qualified even for the Africa Cup of Nations until 2013. In the past 12 years, they have participated four times and reached the quarterfinals twice (2013 and 2024).

Thanks to the stability provided by long-term domestic coach Bubista (in charge for over five years), the former Portuguese colony is on the brink of a sensational World Cup qualification ahead of continental powerhouse Cameroon.

With two rounds remaining, Cape Verde leads by four points and has upcoming matches against Libya away and Eswatini at home. One win from these two matches will guarantee them a place at the World Cup.

Ghana is also in a strong position. The Black Stars sit three points ahead of Madagascar and four ahead of Comoros, facing the Central African Republic and Comoros in the final two rounds. The crucial match in this group, however, will be today at 19:00 between Madagascar and Comoros for second place.

Only an extraordinary shock could prevent Ghana — with players like Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo, Inaki Williams, Thomas Partey, Ernest Nuamah, Kamaldine Sulemana, Mohamed Salisu, Tariq Lamptey… and coach Otto Addo — from qualifying for their second consecutive World Cup, and fifth overall.

Senegal, arguably the strongest African side in recent years, completed the hardest part of their campaign in September and can now await the last two rounds calmly. The Lions of Teranga had trailed DR Congo for seven rounds, losing 2–0 a month ago in front of 80,000 fans in Kinshasa, seemingly resigning themselves to pursuing qualification through a difficult playoff.

However, they stunned the home crowd with a total turnaround, winning 3–2. Senegal is expected to advance easily, as they are overwhelming favorites in their final matches against South Sudan and Mauritania.

One of the tightest groups in African qualifying has been the Ivory Coast and Gabon. The key match was played in September, ending 0–0, leaving the Elephants at the top of the group by a single point, with their fate still in their own hands for October. If they beat Seychelles away and Kenya at home, the reigning African champions will reach their first World Cup in 12 years since Brazil 2014.

The most controversial group has been Group C, contested by Benin, South Africa, Nigeria, and Rwanda, with Lesotho and Zimbabwe also taking points off others. Fifteen days ago, everything seemed settled, with South Africa leading Nigeria, Benin, and Rwanda by six points.

But on September 20, it was announced that South Africa had fielded an ineligible player in their win over Benin, suspended due to yellow card accumulation. The match was forfeited, Benin awarded a 3–0 victory, and suddenly, South Africa and Benin were tied on 14 points, while Nigeria and Rwanda each had 11.

Hope for Nigeria – Bafana Bafana lose points over rule breach

Nigeria has been the biggest disappointment, not just in Africa but worldwide. With two rounds left against Lesotho and Benin, they still have a realistic shot at second place, but the chances that 17 points (if they win both games) will be enough to enter the top four runners-up and reach the playoff are slim. Victor Osimhen and his teammates face a major letdown.

The battle among the best runners-up is also set to be dramatic. Currently, Gabon, Madagascar, DR Congo, and Burkina Faso occupy the four playoff spots. Cameroon, Uganda, Namibia, Tanzania, and South Africa (likely to finish first) miss out, while the runners-up are all separated by only a few points. Goal difference will likely decide who misses out. Until the final matches next Tuesday, we won’t know exactly which four teams will enter the November African playoffs and fight for a spot in the intercontinental playoff.

WC QUALIFICATION AFRICA - MATCHDAY 9

Wednesday

16.00: (7.75) Eswatini (3.60) Angola (1.55)

16.00: (5.90) Ethiopia (3.50) Guinea B. (1.67)

16.00: (2.95) Libya (2.75) Cape Verde (2.65)

16.00: (25.0) Mauritius (8.00) Cameroon (1.12)

19.00: (20.0) Cental African Republic (7.50) Ghana (1.15)

19.00: (16.0) Chad (6.25) Mali (1.20)

19.00: (2.40) Comores (3.00) Madagascar (3.30)

19.00: (40.0) Djibouti (15.0) Egypt (1.03)

19.00: (5.50) Sierra Leone (3.50) Burkina Faso (1.70)

22.00: (2.00) Niger (3.35) Congo (4.00)

22.00: (3.40) Tanzania (3.10) Zambia (2.30)

***odds are subject to change***